Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.

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SAMPLE: Reports of the Treasury Bull Market’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

January 25, 2017
As has often been the case over the past quarter century, the call for the demise of the secular bull market in bonds is premature. We maintain that the secular low in yields is ahead and not behind. The underpinnings of the secular decline in yields—pervasive, chronic overcapacity and financial fragility—all persist.

SAMPLE: Dollar Strength to Persist

November 18, 2016
Both cyclical and secular reasons support a stronger dollar in 2017, boding ill for EM financial markets and commodities.

SAMPLE: A Demented Goldilocks and a Joyless Bubble

June 10, 2016
The first-half 2016 Goldilocks economy: weak enough to deter the Fed from lifting interest rates but not quite weak enough for falling profits to have yet triggered recession.

SAMPLE: Exaggerated Importance of QE Redux

November 14, 2014
The end of QE will not depress U.S. stock prices. We continue to expect U.S. markets to outperform most other major stock markets around the world.

SAMPLE: China’s Troubles: Further Reason to Underweight or Short Emerging Markets

July 11, 2013
We wrote in the summer of 2013 that China’s leaders “may well feel compelled to shift toward policies that directly harm their EM brethren: currency devaluation, enhanced support and subsidies for exports, and dumping” – all of which have come true over the past few years.

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