Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.

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SAMPLE: Balance Sheets Too Big, Rates Too High, Profit Sources Low on Fuel

November 21, 2023
The November 2023 issue of The Levy Forecast® highlights the multiple paths to a 2024 recession and the critical role that one profit source—personal saving—is likely to play in causing the next downturn. In addition, the report explains how and why the economy's inflated balance sheets will prove vulnerable when the expansion ends.

SAMPLE: Fed Statements Mean Little for Outlook: Relentless Evidence of Persistent, Pervasive Inflation and, Later, Instability Give Fed Minimal Leeway

May 9, 2022
There has been no need to parse clues from Fed speeches to see the widely evident U.S. inflationary pressures that have been dictating monetary policy in 2022. Indeed, this client bulletin—written shortly after Fed Chair Powell told reporters in May that a 75-basis point hike was not under active consideration—argued that incoming data would pressure the Fed to accelerate its rate-hiking schedule.

SPECIAL REPORT: Beijing Underestimating Developing Economic Storm: Economic Stability Teeters; Policymakers’ Actions Inadequate

April 27, 2022
China faces an economic challenge that is much bigger, carries more profound financial implications, and is more immediate than global investors realize. China’s extreme real estate speculation is only the latest in a series of unsustainable excesses that by now have all begun to unwind, making China’s economy rapidly lose its ability to generate profits.

SAMPLE: Fighting Inflation by Fighting Financial Stability

March 31, 2022
"The world economy is headed toward a collision," wrote David Levy in this excerpt from the March 2022 issue of The Levy Forecast®. Rising U.S. interest rates, driven by a powerful economy and potent inflation, are on course to surpass the limit of what global financial stability can bear. Fed rate hikes will trigger global financial instability before they significantly slow U.S. inflation or economic growth.

SAMPLE: Reopening Consumer Surge Risks Stalling by Yearend

February 25, 2022
David Levy in February detailed the critical influences on consumer behavior to expect in 2022—both the positives arguing for a large boost to profits from a falling personal saving rate into the summer and the negatives at risk of dominating consumer trends later in the year.

SAMPLE: Inflation Complacency: Forecasters Counting on Disinflationary Supply Chain Resolution while Downplaying Long-Term Cost Acceleration

January 14, 2022
In the wake of CPI inflation accelerating to a multidecade high in December 2021, a great many economists and other assorted analysts were forecasting that inflation would decline in the next few months and trend profoundly downward over the course of 2022. In this January 2022 client bulletin, Robert King wrote that market participants—and FOMC members—hoping for a spontaneous, lasting disinflationary trend to emerge and remove pressure for interest rates to rise would in all probability be disappointed as the year played out.

SAMPLE: Labor Shortages Adding to Inflationary Pressures

June 4, 2021
At the beginning of summer, U.S. payrolls were not growing as fast as markets had expected. However, the reason was not slowing demand and diminished pressure to increase pay. It was the opposite.

SAMPLE: How Will the Big Balance Sheet Economy Correct?

April 29, 2021
In this excerpt from the April 2021 issue of The Levy Forecast®, David Levy discusses how difficult adjustments and financial struggles in the next several years will sow the seeds of a great economic boom.

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