PUBLICATIONS
Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.
SPECIAL REPORT: Bubble or Nothing
by David A. Levy
How the Long-Term Swelling of Household and Business Sector Balance Sheets Has Increasingly Forced Lenders, Investors, and Borrowers to Sacrifice Prudence, Financial Rewards, or Both.
SAMPLE: Negative Rates and Other Factors Supporting Precious Metals
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
In 2019, gold and silver prices appeared to benefit from some new influences, which could have some staying power as long as the global economy is stumbling but not yet falling.
SAMPLE: Markets in La-La Land . . . What Will Snap Them out of It
by David A. Levy
In the face of developing global distress, global equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first half of 2019. In this excerpt from the June 2019 issue of The Levy Forecast, David Levy address four popular but faulty rationales for holding equities.
SAMPLE: Value of Treasury Bonds in a Portfolio Has Increased Despite Low Yields
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
Bond rallies have become progressively bigger during stock market declines, thereby providing more effective hedging. This hedging feature has become more valuable as global balance sheets have swelled relative to incomes and deflationary forces have spread.
SAMPLE: Beneath the Chinese Credit Data: Is China Pushing on a String?
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
Market expectations for Chinese stimulus were high at the beginning of 2019. In this piece, Srinivas Thiruvadanthai takes a closer look at Chinese credit and monetary aggregates data and finds that the early-2019 credit push did not translate into increased economic activity or net increases in profit sources.
SAMPLE: Prospective Late-2018 Economic Developments of Note for Markets
by David A. Levy
Market sentiment had to adjust over the course of the first two-thirds of 2018 to economic surprises in several parts of the world, each tied to foreseeable changes in a region’s profit sources. In this excerpt from the September 2018 issue of The Levy Forecast®, David Levy discussed what to expect in late 2018 and 2019.
SAMPLE: Decision Time for Chinese Policymakers Again
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai and Fei Wang
Chinese policymakers are once again faced with a familiar dilemma—absent significant stimulus and credit easing, the economy will probably weaken markedly, and financial problems will likely surge. Indeed, the only way China can deleverage its private sector while sustaining economic growth is to run large fiscal deficits.
SAMPLE: Bond Support and Fed “Put” Too Far Out of the Money to Help: Earnings Support Vital for Stocks at This Stage
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
The two reliable shining knights protecting the stock market and other risk assets during this long economic expansion were suddenly AWOL during the stock market’s volatile first few months of 2018.