PUBLICATIONS

Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.

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SAMPLE: Beneath the Chinese Credit Data: Is China Pushing on a String?

February 22, 2019
Market expectations for Chinese stimulus were high at the beginning of 2019. In this piece, Srinivas Thiruvadanthai takes a closer look at Chinese credit and monetary aggregates data and finds that the early-2019 credit push did not translate into increased economic activity or net increases in profit sources.

SAMPLE: Prospective Late-2018 Economic Developments of Note for Markets

September 18, 2018
Market sentiment had to adjust over the course of the first two-thirds of 2018 to economic surprises in several parts of the world, each tied to foreseeable changes in a region’s profit sources. In this excerpt from the September 2018 issue of The Levy Forecast®, David Levy discussed what to expect in late 2018 and 2019.

SAMPLE: Decision Time for Chinese Policymakers Again

September 6, 2018
Chinese policymakers are once again faced with a familiar dilemma—absent significant stimulus and credit easing, the economy will probably weaken markedly, and financial problems will likely surge. Indeed, the only way China can deleverage its private sector while sustaining economic growth is to run large fiscal deficits.

SAMPLE: Twin Deficits: This Time It’s Different

March 16, 2018
Increased government deficit spending will increase imports, expanding the trade deficit, because anything that increases spending and incomes in the economy will result in some additional spending on imports. But, lo and behold, saving and investment balance out automatically—largely through changes in profits—not just in a theoretical closed economy but also in a real one conducting trade with the rest of the world.

SAMPLE: Interest Rates to Threaten Global Financial Stability

February 16, 2018
There is little discussion of the real constraint on monetary policy: oversized global balance sheets and the consequent dependence of global stability on low interest rates. Sufficient increases in either short- or long-term interest rates would lead to financial instability, and 2018 is likely to bring more of each.

SAMPLE: Pressures Building for Dollar Strength

January 22, 2018
In this bulletin from early 2018, we wrote that considering current interest rates, growth, and their outlooks, the dollar looked oversold versus many global currencies.

SAMPLE: Why Hedge Funds Have Struggled in This Cycle

November 28, 2017
These two articles examine key reasons for the underperformance of hedge funds in this latest cycle, and why some hedge fund strategies may be able to take advantage of better opportunities ahead.

THE JEROME LEVY FORECASTING CENTER LLC
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