Category: Sample
PUBLICATIONS
Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.
SAMPLE: Pressures Building for Dollar Strength
by Robert C. King
In this bulletin from early 2018, we wrote that considering current interest rates, growth, and their outlooks, the dollar looked oversold versus many global currencies.
SAMPLE: Why Hedge Funds Have Struggled in This Cycle
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
These two articles examine key reasons for the underperformance of hedge funds in this latest cycle, and why some hedge fund strategies may be able to take advantage of better opportunities ahead.
SAMPLE: More Signs of Domestic Economic Strength in Euro Area, but Vulnerabilities Persist
by John Nahra
A slew of recent data continue to paint a rosy picture of the euro area economy, and we expect sustained momentum over the next couple of quarters. Yet intra-euro-area economic disparities could create future challenges for the ECB.
SAMPLE: U.S. Economy Approaching Year-end with Increasing Momentum
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
Expect expanding Fed concerns about the economy's imminent danger of overheating. The front end of the Treasury yield curve is likely to steepen and the dollar to strengthen.
SAMPLE: Corporate Equity Holdings: Living in the Moment
by David A. Levy
Thoughts on being long equities in a time of high asset valuations, enormous corporate leverage, and dependence on unusually low interest rates. Figuring out when enough dominoes have been knocked over to assure a general collapse may be tricky.
SAMPLE: Japan’s Increasingly Robust Economic Expansion
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai and Fei Wang
By many measures, Japan's economy is showing the most sustained, robust growth since its bubble burst in the early 1990s. As long as global conditions remain benign, Japan Inc. appears poised to accelerate.
SAMPLE: Canadian Mortgage Lender’s Woes Canary in Coalmine?: Slowing Global Inventory Investment Will Undermine Canada's Profits Recovery
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
There is a brewing confluence of bearish short-term developments and long-term forces for the Canadian dollar.
SAMPLE: Rethinking Reflation (in Case You’ve Been Thinking It)
by David A. Levy
The global reflation story is an important force in the U.S. bull stock market. But that does not mean that it must be true.
SAMPLE: The Metamorphosis of the Emerging Market Bubble
by David A. Levy and Robert C. King
While investors hang on to a story of solid long-term EM growth, what keeps the EM expansion from collapsing is strong government deficit spending, high liquidity from foreign lenders, and speculative markets. This is not your father’s EM sector.
SAMPLE: Reports of the Treasury Bull Market’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
by Srinivas Thiruvadanthai
As has often been the case over the past quarter century, the call for the demise of the secular bull market in bonds is premature. We maintain that the secular low in yields is ahead and not behind. The underpinnings of the secular decline in yields—pervasive, chronic overcapacity and financial fragility—all persist.