Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.

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SAMPLE: Twin Deficits: This Time It’s Different

March 16, 2018
Increased government deficit spending will increase imports, expanding the trade deficit, because anything that increases spending and incomes in the economy will result in some additional spending on imports. But, lo and behold, saving and investment balance out automatically—largely through changes in profits—not just in a theoretical closed economy but also in a real one conducting trade with the rest of the world.

SAMPLE: Interest Rates to Threaten Global Financial Stability

February 16, 2018
There is little discussion of the real constraint on monetary policy: oversized global balance sheets and the consequent dependence of global stability on low interest rates. Sufficient increases in either short- or long-term interest rates would lead to financial instability, and 2018 is likely to bring more of each.

SAMPLE: Pressures Building for Dollar Strength

January 22, 2018
In this bulletin from early 2018, we wrote that considering current interest rates, growth, and their outlooks, the dollar looked oversold versus many global currencies.

SAMPLE: Why Hedge Funds Have Struggled in This Cycle

November 28, 2017
These two articles examine key reasons for the underperformance of hedge funds in this latest cycle, and why some hedge fund strategies may be able to take advantage of better opportunities ahead.

SAMPLE: Corporate Equity Holdings: Living in the Moment

October 20, 2017
Thoughts on being long equities in a time of high asset valuations, enormous corporate leverage, and dependence on unusually low interest rates. Figuring out when enough dominoes have been knocked over to assure a general collapse may be tricky.

SAMPLE: Japan’s Increasingly Robust Economic Expansion

October 4, 2017
By many measures, Japan's economy is showing the most sustained, robust growth since its bubble burst in the early 1990s. As long as global conditions remain benign, Japan Inc. appears poised to accelerate.

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