Our written publications highlight macroeconomic opportunities and risks, provide actionable investment insights, and expose popular misconceptions.

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SAMPLE: The Metamorphosis of the Emerging Market Bubble

March 2, 2017
While investors hang on to a story of solid long-term EM growth, what keeps the EM expansion from collapsing is strong government deficit spending, high liquidity from foreign lenders, and speculative markets. This is not your father’s EM sector.

SAMPLE: Reports of the Treasury Bull Market’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

January 25, 2017
As has often been the case over the past quarter century, the call for the demise of the secular bull market in bonds is premature. We maintain that the secular low in yields is ahead and not behind. The underpinnings of the secular decline in yields—pervasive, chronic overcapacity and financial fragility—all persist.

SAMPLE: Exaggerated Importance of QE Redux

November 14, 2014
The end of QE will not depress U.S. stock prices. We continue to expect U.S. markets to outperform most other major stock markets around the world.

SAMPLE: China’s Troubles: Further Reason to Underweight or Short Emerging Markets

July 11, 2013
We wrote in the summer of 2013 that China’s leaders “may well feel compelled to shift toward policies that directly harm their EM brethren: currency devaluation, enhanced support and subsidies for exports, and dumping” – all of which have come true over the past few years.

SAMPLE: Uncle Sam Won’t Go Broke: The Misguided Sovereign Debt Hysteria

July 12, 2010
Skyrocketing U.S. public debt will not lead to default, inflation, necessarily higher taxes, or necessarily slower economic growth in the future, given the unique economic environment. Public debt in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan can go much higher than people think–and has before–without causing the dire consequences that many fear.

SAMPLE: Two Decades of Overstated Corporate Earnings

September 1, 2001
In the last two decades of the 20th century, the investing public was given a picture of corporate financial performance that was in significant part illusion. This 2001 research report set out to answer the question “Just how widespread and serious is the overstatement of aggregate corporate profits?” The macroeconomic evidence indicates that corporate operating earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 during this period were significantly exaggerated—by over 20 percent in some years.

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